Loan Recovery System with Machine Learning

KANGKAN KALITA

Introduction

Loan recovery is a critical challenge for financial institutions. Many traditional recovery methods, such as aggressive follow-ups and legal actions, often lead to customer dissatisfaction and increased costs. A Loan Recovery System with Machine Learning can optimize the process by predicting which borrowers are likely to repay and suggesting personalized recovery strategies.

In this end-to-end data science project, we will build an AI-powered loan recovery system using machine learning techniques. We will cover data preprocessing, exploratory data analysis (EDA), feature engineering, model building, evaluation, and deployment.

Loan Recovery System with Machine Learning

Why Build a Loan Recovery System with Machine Learning?

  • Reduces Defaults: Predict borrowers who may default and take proactive actions.
  • Optimizes Collection Efforts: Focuses recovery strategies on high-risk customers.
  • Minimizes Legal Actions: Encourages amicable settlements instead of costly lawsuits.
  • Enhances Customer Relationships: Provides personalized recovery plans rather than generic collection calls.

Step 1: Dataset Overview

The dataset contains crucial financial and borrower-related details:

Column NameDescription
Borrower_IDUnique ID for each borrower
AgeAge of the borrower
GenderGender of the borrower
Employment_TypeType of employment (Salaried/Self-Employed)
Monthly_IncomeMonthly earnings of the borrower
Num_DependentsNumber of dependents (family members financially dependent)
Loan_IDUnique loan identifier
Loan_AmountTotal amount borrowed
Loan_TenureLoan period (months/years)
Interest_RateInterest rate on the loan
Loan_TypeType of loan (Personal, Home, Auto, etc.)
Collateral_ValueValue of any collateral provided for secured loans
Outstanding_Loan_AmountRemaining loan balance
Monthly_EMIFixed monthly installment for loan repayment
Payment_HistoryPast payment patterns
Num_Missed_PaymentsNumber of missed EMI payments
Days_Past_DueNumber of days loan payments are overdue
Recovery_StatusTarget variable (1 = Loan Recovered, 0 = Defaulted)
Collection_AttemptsNumber of times the bank attempted recovery
Collection_MethodMode of recovery (Phone Call, Visit, Legal Notice)
Legal_Action_TakenWhether legal action was taken (Yes/No)

Step 2: Data Preprocessing

Load and Inspect Data

import pandas as pd  

# Load dataset  
df = pd.read_csv('loan_recovery_dataset.csv')  

# Display basic info  
print(df.info())  
print(df.head())  

🔹 Why?

  • Ensures the dataset is correctly loaded.
  • Identifies missing values and data types.

Handling Missing Values

# Fill missing values for numerical columns with median  
df.fillna({'Monthly_Income': df['Monthly_Income'].median(),  
           'Collateral_Value': df['Collateral_Value'].median(),  
           'Outstanding_Loan_Amount': df['Outstanding_Loan_Amount'].median(),  
           'Num_Missed_Payments': 0,  
           'Days_Past_Due': 0}, inplace=True)  

# Fill categorical missing values with mode  
df.fillna({'Employment_Type': df['Employment_Type'].mode()[0],  
           'Collection_Method': df['Collection_Method'].mode()[0]}, inplace=True)  

# Convert categorical variables to numerical  
df['Employment_Type'] = df['Employment_Type'].map({'Salaried': 1, 'Self-Employed': 0})  
df['Gender'] = df['Gender'].map({'Male': 1, 'Female': 0})  

🔹 Why?

  • Missing numerical values are replaced with median to prevent data skew.
  • Categorical values are converted into numerical formats.

Step 3: Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)

Visualizing Loan Recovery Trends

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt  
import seaborn as sns  

# Loan Recovery Distribution  
sns.countplot(x='Recovery_Status', data=df, palette='coolwarm')  
plt.title('Loan Recovery Status')  
plt.show()  

🔹 Insight:

  • A highly imbalanced dataset may require SMOTE (Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique) for better model training.

Feature Correlation Heatmap

plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))  
sns.heatmap(df.corr(), annot=True, cmap='coolwarm')  
plt.title('Feature Correlation')  
plt.show()  
# Select only numerical features for correlation analysis
numerical_features = df.select_dtypes(include=np.number).columns
correlation_matrix = df[numerical_features].corr()

plt.figure(figsize=(12, 6))
sns.heatmap(correlation_matrix, annot=True, cmap='coolwarm')
plt.title('Feature Correlation')
plt.show()

🔹 Insight:

  • Features like Num_Missed_Payments and Days_Past_Due have a high correlation with loan recovery.

Step 4: Feature Engineering

Create New Features

# Debt-to-Income Ratio  
df['Debt_to_Income'] = df['Outstanding_Loan_Amount'] / df['Monthly_Income']  

# Loan Risk Score (Custom Formula)  
df['Loan_Risk_Score'] = df['Interest_Rate'] * df['Num_Missed_Payments'] / df['Loan_Amount']  

🔹 Why?

  • Debt-to-Income Ratio helps assess repayment capacity.
  • Loan Risk Score quantifies loan risk based on past defaults.

Step 5: Model Training

from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
from sklearn.metrics import accuracy_score, classification_report
from sklearn.preprocessing import LabelEncoder # Import LabelEncoder

# Define features (X) and target (y)
X = df.drop(['Borrower_ID','Legal_Action_Taken' , 'Loan_ID', 'Recovery_Status'], axis=1)
y = df['Recovery_Status']

# Convert 'Payment_History' to numerical using Label Encoding before one-hot encoding
le = LabelEncoder() # Create a LabelEncoder object
X['Payment_History'] = le.fit_transform(X['Payment_History']) # Fit and transform the column

# Convert categorical features to numerical using one-hot encoding
categorical_features = ['Loan_Type', 'Collection_Method', 'Payment_History']
X = pd.get_dummies(X, columns=categorical_features, drop_first=True)

# Split into training and testing sets
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=0.2, random_state=42)

# Train RandomForest Model
model = RandomForestClassifier(n_estimators=100, random_state=42)
model.fit(X_train, y_train)

# Make predictions
y_pred = model.predict(X_test)

# Evaluate Model
print("Accuracy:", accuracy_score(y_test, y_pred))
print(classification_report(y_test, y_pred))

🔹 Why Random Forest?

  • Handles both categorical and numerical features efficiently.

Step 6: Model Deployment

import joblib  

# Save the trained model  
joblib.dump(model, 'loan_recovery_model.pkl')  
print("Model saved successfully!")  

🔹 Why?

  • Enables integration into loan management systems or web applications.

Real-World Applications of Loan Recovery System with Machine Learning

1️⃣ Banking & NBFCs: Predict loan recovery and optimize collections.
2️⃣ Microfinance Institutions: Provide customized repayment plans.
3️⃣ E-Commerce & Fintech: Automate risk assessments for BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) schemes.


Conclusion

A Loan Recovery System with Machine Learning enhances loan repayment predictions, reduces defaults, and improves customer experience. By implementing data-driven recovery strategies, banks and financial institutions can optimize debt collection while maintaining customer trust.

💡 Next Steps? Try experimenting with deep learning models or NLP for sentiment analysis of borrower responses to further enhance the system. 🚀

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